PRESS RELEASE BY IDAHO DISPATCH:
Incumbent Little continues to lead in Republican primary
for Idaho Governor despite undecided voters’ shift towards challengers
Attorney General race competitive
April 20, 2022
Boise, Idaho – With less than one month to go until the May 17th Republican primary for Idaho governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, all eyes are on the candidates as they make their final push. A new Idaho Dispatch poll shows a tight race in the attorney general race and a tightening contest in the lieutenant governor race. Meanwhile, incumbent Brad Little continues to hold a considerable lead against the rest of the field. Idaho Dispatch/Zoldak Research fielded this latest poll between April 9 and 12, 2022 amongst 549 likely Republican Primary voters statewide. This is the second statewide poll fielded by Idaho Dispatch with the first poll conducted in December 2021.
Idaho Governor
Given a sample ballot with Brad Little, Janice McGeachin, Ashley Jackson, Ed Humphreys, Steve Bradshaw, Lisa Marie, and Cody Usabel, incumbent Little receives 60% of votes while second place candidate, McGeachin, 29%. Notably, Little has not increased the size of his share of the total vote since the Idaho Dispatch’s December 2021 poll, where he stood at 59%. On the other hand, McGeachin has gained +11% since December, when she received 18% support in our poll.
The other candidates continue to poll much farther behind, with Humphreys at 6.2% (a jump of +3.8% from December), Bradshaw at 2.7% (up +1.8% from 0.9%), newcomer Ashley Jackson at 1.1% and the rest of the field at <1%.
A few months has made a vast difference in the name recognition factor in the governor’s race for challengers. Notably, McGeachin has reduced her unknowns from 57% to 7% and is now even in her net favorability rating. Humphries has gained +6% net favorability since December and reduced his unknowns by -11%. (Net favorability is calculated by subtracting unfavorable ratings from favorable ratings.) Incumbent Little has lost -12% in net favorability.
In a head-to-head contest against McGeachin, current governor Little is ahead 62% to 33% against field leader McGeachin, with 6% undecided. In December, Little was ahead 64% to 24% with 12% undecided. In other words, the undecideds seem to have gone entirely into McGeachin’s camp.
In a head-to-head contest with Humphreys, Little is ahead 62% to 19%, with 19% undecided. In December, this race was at 65% to 11%, with 24% undecided. We see the same trend here where the challenger seems to gain ground while the incumbent holds steady.
Idaho Lieutenant Governor
Moving on to the lieutenant governor’s race, we now see a much narrower race with Scott Bedke up by only 6.5% over Priscilla Giddings. Newcomer Daniel Gasiorowski registers a modest 4%. A large swath is still undecided, however, at nearly 40%. In December, 50% of voters were undecided, and Bedke was leading Giddings by +22%.
Idaho Attorney General
In the Attorney General race, Raúl Labrador is leading Lawrence Wasden 36% to 33%, with 27% still undecided. Labrador’s lead is just within the margin of error.
Right Track / Wrong Track
From December to April, the number of Republican Primary voters who believe the state is going in the right direction dropped from 56% to 50% (-6%) and the voters who believe the state is going in the wrong direction increased from 30% to 36% (+6%). 14% in both polls responded that they did not know whether the state was going in the right or wrong direction. When looking at the crosstabs of those who believe the state is on the “right track” versus the “wrong track,” it is clear that this greatly impacts candidate choice. In all three top races, the lead shifts between voters from the right track and wrong track camps.
For full coverage of the results, visit: https://idahodispatch.com/2022poll
Methodology: A landline and mobile survey of registered voters who answered that they were somewhat to very likely to vote in the upcoming Idaho Republican primary election for governor, fielded between April 9 and 12, 2022. The sample size was 549. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
For interviews, media kit, or additional graphics contact: Greg Pruett, Editor, Idaho Dispatch, info@idahodispatch.com
To speak with the pollster, contact: media@zoldakresearch.com
For full toplines, click here. For full crosstabs, click here.